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  • smuggymba
    07-28 02:45 PM
    But if you look past history, skilled immigration has had allies when Republican have been in power. Its a wrong notion that h1B/Eb people have that democratic party is for immigrant. Actually Democratci party is for the illegal masses only.

    Amnesty has been given by Democrats only earlier and this is their third attempt I guess





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  • Macaca
    12-28 06:54 PM
    The India-U.S. Relationship in 2010 (http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/12/28/the-year-that-was-india-and-the-us-in-2010/) By Tripti Lahiri | IndiaRealTime

    Indian and U.S. relations went through both highs and lows in 2010, with roadblocks on nuclear cooperation and outsourcing creating some rifts in a relationship that is strengthening overall, as U.S. President Barack Obama said on his first visit here in November.

    Here are five India Real Time blogs that present a sense of the diversity of the political, economic and cultural ties between�yes, we have to say it��the world�s oldest democracy and the world�s largest democracy.�

    Sure, some Americans still see Indians as job-stealers. During the Arkansas Democratic primary earlier this year, a group called Americans for Job Security tried to capitalize on that perception with an ad that had various Indian characters thanking candidate Bill Halter for sending them jobs. Many Americans, and not just those of Indian or Asian descent, found the ad a wee bit tasteless.

    And sometimes India still feels on unequal footing with the U.S. The verdict this summer by a Bhopal court in the Union Carbide pesticide plant gas leak case of 1984 stirred up grievances India still harbors towards the United States from a time when the country wasn�t viewed as an emerging nation and had little ability to bargain with the American superpower.

    This year seven former Indian executives of the now defunct Union Carbide India Ltd. were found guilty of negligence in connection with a disaster that killed thousands. No American executive stood trial and Union Carbide Corp. the parent company, never admitted negligence though it did agree to a $470 million settlement five years after the leak. The feeling that an American firm had got off lightly because it hailed from a country more powerful than India sometimes still rankles and set off a cry again this year to extradite then Union Carbide Corp. chair Warren Anderson, now in his eighties.

    But couch potatoes in both countries can still share a laugh at and with each other. Following the theory that the best comedy comes from the things we really want to cry about, as Americans complained about job losses and Indian IT firms complained about a hike in skilled-worker visa fees, NBC waded into the fray with a sitcom called �Outsourced.� Reviews for the show, which premiered in September, and comments from India Real Time readers , were mixed.

    Culturally, the two countries exchanged some things. From motorcycles to Broadway-inspired theme parks, India drew a lot from the United States. Meanwhile, Indians are now providing suits to Obama and recipes to the rest of America. And at least one Indian-American came to greater prominence in the United States.

    And the most powerful man in the world (or second-most, with China�s Hu Jintao apparently ahead this year) says the two countries have overcome the coldness of the past, when India aligned more closely to the former USSR. In his landmark address to Parliament Mr. Obama said that India and the U.S. �have an historic opportunity to make the relationship between our two countries a defining partnership of the century ahead.� He also said the two countries must work together to create jobs, fight terror, promote democracy around the world.

    Of course, in order to achieve all those things, India Real Time suggested that the two countries, like any couple that is in it for the long haul , must work out the kinks in their own relationship.

    India U.S. Ties in 2010 (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203731004576046822308542558.html) By IndiaRealTime





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  • ohpdfeb2003
    06-27 11:11 AM
    hpandey,

    Excellent points!

    Hirala/puddonhead,

    You guys are still going by popular news article and media hype. You fail to understand the ground reality. I bought my house last year in a great school district. I used to pay $1,250 rent for a single bedroom condo of 800 sq ft. I could have as well flushed that money down the toilet. My house now is 1600 sq ft living area + completed basement + garage + deck, all for $2,500 (mortgage + insurance + tax). I'm in the 30% tax bracket and I know I'll get a huge tax benefit. My quality of life has been great with the addition of space in my dwelling.

    I'll have to reiterate - do not generalize your opinions. What's happening in Detriot is NOT happening everywhere!

    EDIT: The rent in my area for my home is of course not $2,500 but between $1,800 to $1,900. After tax deduction I'll be paying the same amount (or a tiny bit more) as a renter. If my home apprecites, I gain, if it doesn't, I DON'T lose anything. But I were a renter, my loss is guaranteed!

    Its not logical to think of rent as money flushed down the toilet. It is the money you pay for a service aka for a service that provides shelter without any maintanance involved.

    Is the money that you are paying as interest for mortgage money flushed down the toilet???:rolleyes:

    Taxdeduction is overrated, remember everyone gets a standard deduction, so even if you
    dont have mortgage you get a break.



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  • qasleuth
    03-31 07:35 PM
    I am not convinced with the whole systematic preadjudication logic at all. I think it has to do with the mistakenly released memo by USCIS and the criteria which is listed in it. Companies meeting the criteria listed in that memo's H1s/I140s are being looked at and I485 app in the same file. There is no trend in the posts on this site by people who received RFEs to suggest systematic preadjudication, they are all over the place. EB2, EB3 - priority date-years ranging from 2001 to 2006, received RFEs.

    USCIS seems to be making a coordinated attempt to preadjudicate in order to avoid future backlogs (to achieve their metrics on processing times). See thread on Processing Time Targets they have set for themselves: http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=24747





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  • Macaca
    12-30 06:41 PM
    India vs. China in 2010 (http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/12/30/india-vs-china-in-2010/) By Tripti Lahiri | IndiaRealTime

    Economists and western political leaders love to compare India and China, and it�s an understandably irresistible comparison: They�re both rising Asian economies with more than a billion people, and neighbors to boot.

    On India Real Time we�ve done a little of that ourselves from time to time.

    If you�re pressed for time we can sum it up like this: China has more of everything (except poor people.) If you�re not, here are five blogs that stacked India and China up against each other on different indicators in the past year.

    Warren Buffett: The billionaire from Omaha so far has appeared to be leaning a bit more towards China, at least in terms of investments. Mr. Buffett�s company, Berkshire Hathaway Co., holds a sizeable stake in Chinese battery and auto-maker BYD Co. And Mr. Buffett visited in September, along with Bill Gates, hoping to convince Chinese billionaires to give away more of their wealth to charity. The love is returned, with a Chinese man having paid a record $2.1 million to have a one-on-one lunch with the investing wizard.

    Mr. Buffett has said that he�d like to invest in India but his plans have been stymied by caps on foreign holdings in insurance.

    However, India can at least look forward to hosting him in the new year. The billionaire announced at a shareholders� meeting this year, in response to a question from a young Indian-American, that he plans to visit India in 2011, perhaps in March.

    The big-ticket event: India hosted the Commonwealth Games in October, China hosted the Asian Games in November. Of course, China�s already hosted the Olympics�and how�so it hardly seems fair to compare the two.

    But we did anyway. The news coverage of the Indian Games was rife with words like �delays,� �corruption,� �shambles� (we�re pretty sure that was the British press) and �filthy� until the opening night extravaganza quelled criticism for a bit.

    China, it appeared, had lovely, shiny venues ready to go about five months ahead of the event, so it could spend the final days flicking away little specks of dust from its Games merchandise.

    Their middle classes: According to a report on Asia�s middle classes this year, India still has about 650 million people living on under $2 dollars a day measured in 2005 purchasing parity dollars.

    China now has less than 100 million living on that amount. Yet there was a time, as recently as the 1990s, when the two countries had similar numbers of poor. China has just done a better job of lifting people from that bracket into the middle class, and not just onto the next rung �the $2 to $4 range, where a majority of India�s middle class folks fall.

    The majority of Chinese now fall in the �mid middle class� category that can spend $5 to $10, a group whose numbers appear to have quadrupled between 1995 and 2007.

    But don�t blame the slower rate of reduction in poverty on India�s political system, says John Lee of the Sydney-based think-tank Center for Independent Studies.

    The economy, stupid: China is still a much bigger economy than India, even though the two countries have roughly similar numbers of people. At a Hindustan Times conference on India, Shashi Ruia, chairman of Essar Group, compared the two countries on steel production, car production and trade.

    As we already said, China does more of everything. The gap is undoubtedly glaring on roads, electricity production, trains and other infrastructure.

    Surfing: India�s and China�s online populations belong to different worlds, judging by their Google searches. India appears to be firmly embedded in the English-speaking western world, looking for products like Nokia and applications like Facebook, Yahoo! and YouTube, although when it comes to films, it�s all Bollywood. China seemed to be the reverse�relying largely on Chinese applications but much more likely to seek out Hollywood films. They did have this much in common though: outr� pop star Lady Gaga.


    India and China in 2010 (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203525404576050850667532420.html) IndiaRealTime



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  • GCwaitforever
    07-17 06:22 AM
    This thread is very interesting to me. I've kind of lived though both sides, and it is really aweful for everyone but the abusive employer.

    My understanding of Immigration Voice's agenda is that this group is really for people who have H1B visas and are in the country already to bring their spouses and children here with full rights to travel and work, make sure renewals of H1Bs happen so you can stay in the country, and, even better, to convert H1B visas to green cards.

    My understanding is that the only reason that Immigration Voice supports increased H1B visa numbers is because people whose current visas are about to expire, and family members, are counted in these same numbers.

    Please correct if I'm wrong. I really would like to get this right.

    Anyway, if I do have it right, it seems to me that the AFL-CIO position (give people green cards instead of H1B visas) bridges the core concerns of members of Immigration Voice and the Programmers Guild. Whether or not everybody recognizes this is a different story, but it is good to know where the overlapping concern is, and hopefully in long term, get people talking about a solution that really does try to bridge the gap.

    Members of Immigration voice are already on H-1B and would like to become permanent residents. Family members come on a dependent visa H4. H4 numbers are not counted in the overall H-1B numbers as H4 dependents can not work. H-1B numbers do not have any country specific quotas and already exclude spouses and dependent children.

    Increase/decrease in H-1B numbers should be market-driven. This is my personal opinion.

    The bigger concern is becoming a permanent resident. Green card numbers are limited. There are country specific quotas. Spouses and children are counted in the total numbers. Because there are more H-1B people from India and China (mostly graduates of US universities or come on H-1B directly), the queue is longer for these people and it takes even longer to get a VISA number for these folks.

    Instant Green card is the Utopia. There are other practical solutions for this problem. I listed them in sequence of my personal preference. Others may choose differently.

    1. USCIS processing efficiency: Many of the delays are due to USCIS and related agency processing capability. If we speed up this and increase effiiciencies, the wait would be lesser.

    2. Allowing to file for Adjustment of status (I-485) without current priority date: This gives the employees a work permit and makes it easier for their spouses to pursue their own ambitions. After six months of filing for I-485, the employee is a free bird to choose different employer, for a similar job position.

    3. Pre-adjudication of Greencards: This completes the ordeal of USCIS paper maze even when VISA numbers are not available. Applicants will get Green card when the VISA number is available and in the interim they will get the work permit.

    4. Recapture unused VISA numbers: For the past ten years, USCIS never used up VISA numbers allocated per year because of processing inefficiencies. They should be recaptured and applied to the people waiting in queues longer.

    5. Not counting spouses and dependents: When they come into this country, spouses and children are not counted in H-1B numbers. It does not seem logical to count them against VISA numbers while giving permanent residency. Spouses and children should be skipped from this count.

    6. No country based quotas: Again the same argument. When H-1B holders come into this country, they are not discriminated by country of origin. While applying for permanent residency, they are in strict quotas. Why put this restriction for Employment-based immigration? It is not logical and there should not be any country specific quotas.

    7. Exempting STEM: This is in the SKIL bill under consideration. Those with Ph. D, and Masters in Science/Technology/Engineering/Mathematics are allowed to adjust their status without waiting for VISA numbers.

    8. Increasing VISA numbers: This is a quick fix solution. What guarantee does it give that we do not find ourselves in this immigration mess again after five/ten years?

    If AFL-CIO supports these initiatives, it would be great for the cause of Immigration voice.:)





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  • dealsnet
    01-06 08:29 PM
    Israel is doing this for their safty. They are a soverign country and attacking the terrorist. Hamas don't want cease fire, then why they expect mercy. If they don't want to stop the war, then why other people raise their voice. Mind your business.
    They are not occupy any body's land. They live there from thousand of years, which God given to them. When they not recognize the saviour and cruxified, God's wrath fall upon them and they are disperesed. But to fulfil the Holy Bible prophesy, they regain the land and living there. No force in earth to distroy them. They are surrounded by hostile nations. Still they are surviving.
    These Arabs during and after the time of Mohammed tried to conquer the lands, and they occupy the land of Jews. They occupy the Constanople, where the biggest church situated, and they anexed to ottaman empire, now Turkey. They slaughtered everybody in that city. They did it in Syria, Egypt in AD1100. They distroy their culture, language etc. They cut the tongue, if anybody speaks the local language Syric in Syria and Coptic in Egypt. You can ask the minority people from these countries or read history. Barbarian Arabs conqured Indian subcontinent and convert the people by force. So Islam is not a religion of peace. It started with violence and end with violence. Every religion, religous people will be pious, but in Islam, they become terrorist. Satan is controlling these people. Sorry to say that. But it is true. In the last days, God punish these evil people. May all wiped out.

    See this web site for more detailshttp://www.faithfreedom.org/Articles.htm



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  • fide_champ
    04-05 10:54 PM
    Jang.Lee,
    I totally aggree with you. I am also from socal and a regular visior to irvinehousingblog.
    Currenly I am in apt and tired of living in apt, but I am definitely in no rush to buy and would probably find a good private home to rent.

    Please check your PM.

    Land cannot be manufactured. The population is growing by the day and people need a place to live. So the space is at a premium here. The housing market maybe down because of the sub-prime crisis and the banks going out of business. But eventually it has to come back. Maybe this market is not for people who are looking to invest.

    Look at india for instance: whatever state the economy is in, the housing always booms because of the supply/demand factor. Eventually US will reach that stage unless otherwise the population shrinks.





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  • bondgoli007
    01-06 05:06 PM
    At the same time read about "Greater Middle East", "Greater Isreal" and "New world Order" , "Unipolar world" etc if you have time.
    What would be the purpose of reading all that? I thought the spotlight was on hamas...this is how you try to move the spotlight away huh!!



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  • gchopes
    06-25 08:27 AM
    I agree that over 10 years buyers "may" come ahead of renters but our question is will buyers of : 2009 come out ahead of 2010 buyers or 2011 buyers? Also is it worth taking a risk and wait 1-2 years given the state of economy and our GC in limbo.

    -- The GC limbo is going be there for the next 10 years so we can't take that as a factor in our home buying decision for this year or the next couple years. We are still going to be waiting for a GC in 2010 and 2011.

    I have been paying rent since 2001 and my friends bought houses in 2004 & 2007. None at the moment think they are ahead of me due to their decision :) :p

    -- 2004 and 2007 was the peak of the housing market. 2008 was the meltdown. Buyers who didn't buy in 2009 when the interest rates were at a 30 yr low are missing out big time. In just a month the rates have gone up. Not sure where they will be in 2010 and 2011 but a 30 year low point is good enough for me.





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  • file485
    07-08 09:07 PM
    I have been here 11 years. 4 different employers.
    I have all my returns and W2's
    why in the world would i keep every paystub?
    makes no sense. of course little does.

    UN thanks for the comments.
    any predictions on where we are headed? my vested interest is in EB2 india...

    btw why is everyone presuming that the 60,000 approvals went to India and China? EB3 ROW is retrogressed- all the extra numbers could have gone there. that would in any case be all the better for india/china in the longer term- the faster that backlog is finished, the greater the chance india/china lines will show meaningful movement.

    also did you notice the cantwell-kyl compromise amendment in the failed CIR 2007 had a provision for 485 filing w/o visa numbers current?


    paskal..

    seriously thinking about sending an email to Oppenheim, Charles to consider moving the dates in the bulletin liberally so no visas r lost each year..before there is another debacle with the October bulletin..

    maybe he is the right person to hear our misery..but not sure if they even consider our emails and tell us not to teach them what to do..



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  • ak27
    01-28 09:54 AM
    Lou Dobbs has found an audience who oppose any form of immigration. Lou picks and choose facts which support his point of view and no one at CNN is stopping him because his ratings have gone up with his rant...





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  • rvr_jcop
    03-26 08:37 PM
    With regards to h-1b processing; if you file an h-1b and you are silent as to the work location on the i-129 and you get an lca for your h-1b office location and then USCIS gives you an rfe for a client letter.

    You get a client letter in a different location and did not have an lca for that location prior to the receipt date of the h-1b filing then USCIS will deny the h-1b saying that it wasn't approvable when filed. Therefore, because of this USCIS is essentially saying that you are only getting h-1b approval for the work location specified in the petition when it was filed. It does not include a blanket approval to work at multiple locations.

    Therefore; one should always amend the h-1b for different work location. Everytime you amend; you have to pay uscis/lawyer fees and are at risk of getting rfe everytime.

    With regards to greencard. You don't have to work at the location required in the labor until the greencard gets approved. Most labors state job location is "various unanticipated locations across usa". If it has this statement then you are covered and don't have to locate to the office of the company; you can work in any location.

    If there is not such an annotation in the labor then to make it 100% legal you should go and work in the location covered by the labor. However, as the baltimore decision stated; you can use ac21 for a different locaiton with same employer. Therefore, if 485 is pending more then six months and greencard gets approved; you have essentially used ac21 without even knowing it.

    I do know a few cases where attorney did labor in location of where persons client was located. However, if person has shifted to another location then it would be impossible to justify it legally that you will go back there when greencard gets approved because that job would no longer exist.

    There are a lot of complexities involved in this. It just goes to show that on a whim; uscis can do a lot of things to make peoples lives miserable.

    Thank you UN for wonderful explanation. You hit the nail to the point. Usually USCIS sends these work location queries at the time of 140 processing. I am surprised we are seeing these at I-485 stage. Is there any recent memo related to this by USCIS that you know of?



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  • kaisersose
    04-15 02:12 PM
    I am on H1B and I485 is pending. I just bought a mid-price house and I will recommend to buy only if your I140 is approved. I waited for many years but finally bought one. Buying the house was a big decision but I am glad that I took it. I have a 3 year old daughter and she being able to run in our own backyard is worh of some financial risk. The house prices are lower (still I think a little higher than it should be) and the interest rate is good too. So, go for it and good luck.

    Per iwantmygreen you (just like me) are here to hurt his/her emotions. Apparently we get a kick out of that.





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  • transpass
    03-26 07:14 PM
    I am sure that per law or whatever when you filed for a h1b for a location A and the petitioner moves to a location B, then I believe you have to file an amendment for ur h1b to that new location...the question is Iam not sure how many people care to do that

    Yeah that's true...I guess not many people bother, not many lawyers bothered until now, and also not many people people even know that you need to file amendment...



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  • senthil1
    11-15 07:16 AM
    Aggressive increase of H1 will increase immigration and drive down the wages. That already happened after Dot com burst. Thousands of H1 people went back to India at that time and many people lost jobs. It was very tough to get the job beween 2000 to 2003. I think moderate increase of H1 is fine. But Skill bill gives market based increase every year and exemptions. This does not have American peple support. Actually Companies are trying to kill the hot job market in IT now. In reality Top 20 Indian companies does not have any problem in bringing people as they are using L1. Only American companies like Intel Microsoft may have a problem in getting people. Also Lot of Desi consulting companies rushing at the time of April and applying so many h1s to avoid caps. Anyone is not sure whether that is used or not. They are bringing people gradually and might not use some of h1s. Because of this lot of genuine companies cannot use h1s. They have to regulate h1s before increasing. I am sure even if they increase 200k H1 it will not be enough as so many people are waiting in India. Thats why they are asking market based increase every year and exemptions. Infact if they do this current h1 people will the imapct in another 2 years. There is no point if you have a gc but you will not be having a job. Since democrats win I won't be surprised that Skill may be passed in current form. But election result does not favor or oppose immigration. Generally American public does not care about immigration as other issues are more important for them.
    Moderate increase of GC( may be 300 to 400k) coupled with 120k h1s will give releif to everyone for next 5 to 10 years. As everyone knows companies are strongly lobbying for H1s but not Gcs though they are supporting. Companies will be happy if h1 is increased.





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  • nojoke
    04-15 06:17 PM
    I suggest you stop looking at national level figures if you are seeking accurate information. Look at the specific neighborhood you have mind and you may find that the situation there is not exactly what is shown on CNN.

    As an example the DFW area is doing alright inspite of the gloomy picture painted by the media at the national level. Used homes will take longer to sell, but it is nowhere as bad as Florida or CA. And we are not discussing selling here anyway...we are discussing buying.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/14/business/worldbusiness/14real.html?_r=2&ex=1365912000&en=5fc0b58ba0e5df8f&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
    Now it is global.:D. India has started seeing decline too. After all a ponzi scheme is still a ponzi scheme wherever.





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  • xyzgc
    12-27 01:29 AM
    great posts by alisa, gcisadawg and abcdgc. I don't agree with alisa but the posts are decent.





    PD_Dec2002
    07-07 08:56 PM
    Hi,
    I applied for GC under schedule A in may06 .My husband filed as derivative.He received a notice of intent to denial last month .Reason being he did not have paystubs for a period of more than 6 months during 2000 and 2001.His employer at that time did not pay him even after he worked for 4 months then he took few more months to change his company(more than 180 days)In 2002 he went to India and came back .and in 2004 filed for a GC as primary petitioner and me as a derivative .last year he withdrew the petition after he received several RFE`S fearing the worst.Even though he no longer has GC filed as primary petitioner he received notice of intent to deny for the petion filed through me saying that his H1 was not legal as could`nt show proof for several months and that when he filed for AOS he used those years as work experience.
    and now another problem is I applied for EAD in march and have not received new ead.my old ead expired 10 days ago.and now Iam not working.
    We bought a house last year thinking that under schedule A we`ll get GC in no time.Now we know it is a terrible mistake.Now both of us can`t work and had to take my son out of daycare. and we have house payments to make.We put our house for sale weeks ago and so far no offers.I contacted local representative to expedite My EAD and also contacted USCIS to expedite it,
    citing financial burden.We are spending sleepless nights and have no clue what to do for my EAD and his AOS.pLEASE HELP.
    Did anyone face similar situation .Any suggestions are welcome.

    Sad to hear your story. Talk to an attorney ASAP. Maybe to several attorneys to get different opinions and perspectives. Time is of the essence in you case. Contact a financial planner/realtor as well to see what you can do about your house payments.

    Good luck.

    Regards,
    Jayant





    Macaca
    05-18 05:15 PM
    How the Middle East’s uprisings affect China’s foreign relations (http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/05/17/how-the-middle-east-s-uprisings-affect-china-s-foreign-relations/) By Shi Yinhong | Renmin University of China

    The recent uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and elsewhere in the Middle East have important consequences for China’s foreign relations.

    With Washington becoming increasingly preoccupied with the Middle East, it will have less opportunity to focus on China. At the same time, the return of a US policy aimed at promoting democratisation could have a destabilising effect on Sino–US relations. China might reassess how it shapes its relations with highly repressive regimes, and it will have to take into account that Western countries are now better positioned to push resolutions aimed at intervening in certain types of countries through the UN Security Council (UNSC).

    The uprisings run counter to assumptions that the predominant struggle in Middle Eastern politics is between US-backed authoritarian regimes and Islamic fundamentalism. Instead, the recent revolts involve a third force — the ‘urban underdogs.’ These popular movements are largely disorganised, have no leaders and are not based on clearly defined ideas. The uprisings are the outcome of poor economic conditions, the authoritarian suppression of fundamental liberties, and the highly corrupt nature of the ruling elite. Situational factors also play a role: the spill over effect from revolts in one country to the next; the availability of modern forms of communication to enable mobilisation; the use of symbolic places for mass gathering (in the case of Tahrir Square in Cairo); overwhelming attention from the West; and the policy inclinations of the US and European governments.

    As the Arab world transforms, becoming more tumultuous along the way, Washington will face new dilemmas, and the fight against terror will no longer be overwhelmingly dominant. ‘Pushing democracy’ has returned as a major foreign policy theme in Washington as the uprisings partially restore the West’s self-confidence, battered from the financial crisis.

    All of this has major implications for China’s foreign relations. Washington’s deeper involvement in the Middle East is favourable to Beijing, reducing Washington’s ability to place focused attention and pressure on China. But, conversely, the partial return of the push for democracy is not to the benefit of China or stable Sino–US relations. China may need to reconsider its quite amicable relationships with regimes that are repressive, corrupt and have little popular support. Beijing is insufficiently prepared to deal with dramatic political changes in such countries, clearly shown in the past when China’s relations with Iran (1979), Romania (1989) and Serbia (1999) were severely affected. This happened more recently in Zimbabwe, and now also in Egypt and Sudan. Other countries where similar developments could take place are Burma, North Korea and perhaps also Pakistan.

    The Middle Eastern turmoil is also relevant to China’s domestic stability. Some activists in and outside China are hoping for a ‘Chinese jasmine revolution.’ Beijing overreacted somewhat, particularly in the early days, by taking strong domestic security precautions despite no signs of widespread activism in China. This may have been the activists’ immediate purpose: to embarrass the Chinese government and to show its lack of self-confidence to the world and the Chinese public. This in turn could make Beijing more hesitant about deepening economic and political reforms.

    The uprisings are also affecting China’s international position with regard to the issue of intervention. Beijing probably believed they had no choice other than to allow the UNSC to adopt Resolution 1973, which gave the international community the authority to establish a no-fly zone over Libya. It was clear that the US, France and the UK were resolutely determined to launch a military strike, and certain Arab and African countries supported and even intended to join the intervention. Had Beijing vetoed the resolution, China’s relations with both the West and the Arab countries involved would have been severely strained — and the West would have still launched their attack anyway. This was a hard decision for China: Resolution 1973 could form a dangerous precedent in international law, as previous norms have been revised in favour of armed intervention in a domestic conflict. In the future, the US and its allies might reapply this, potentially to the detriment of China’s interests.

    China’s hope for stable Sino–US relations following the state visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to the US in January 2011, and China’s important relationship with Saudi Arabia, had induced Beijing to abstain from using its veto in the UNSC. Moreover, if a similar case does occur in the foreseeable future, it seems rather unlikely that China or Russia would use their veto in order to protect the principle of non-interference. Consequently, the US and its associates in the UNSC might very well see an opportunity to act resolutely in the coming years, with the aim of effecting intervention in other countries, comparable to Libya, a country first of all not allied with them and far distant from them. This is an opportunity that has likely not escaped Washington’s attention.

    Shi Yinhong is Professor of International Relations and Director of the Center on American Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing

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