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  • mariner5555
    04-15 03:37 AM
    We are looking to buy a house and the bank is asking us to put down 10%. How much money is considered safe to have after down-payment if we are buying a home. I know it depends on the situation, but I would like some estimates/ball-park figures.
    if on EAD / H1 - have atleast 12 months living expenses (food, mortgage, utilities taxes etc ..for worst case scenario - maybe even more -- since you won't be able to sell the house easily if you have to move for a new job) ..if on GC, I guess 6 months. depends on yr area, skills etc ..my guess only.
    here is the latest from Wachovia ..(I know it is a repeat ..but to answer the original thread question for others who may want opinions) ..These economists are generally optimistic even when the situation is bad (since it hurts their own stock prices) ..the fact that they are pessimistic shows the real situation. In other words (my thoughts) - if your 485 is pending, then there is no hurry to buy a house ..deals will get better in the next 18 months. (after that house prices will be stagnant for a longer time -- this is for most locations or around 95% of US cities/towns)
    ------------
    Don Truslow, chief risk officer of banking giant Wachovia (WB, Fortune 500), said home prices should fall through 2008 before finally hitting bottom in the middle of 2009. (Wachovia, the No. 4 U.S. bank by assets, reported an unexpected loss Monday.)

    Sinai argues that until housing prices turn around, there isn't much hope for a pick-up in the economy because housing woes will continue be a drag on consumer spending and the credit markets.
    "So much borrowing and lending was leveraged to [housing], that as long as values keep going down, the exposure of consumers, of financial institutions and of investors remains extremely high," he said.
    -----------
    if you are technical person ..read this article ..not sure how he (Mr. Makin is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.)comes up with 23% figure ..but I guess he must have done research.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120813349057411671.html?mod=opinion_main_comment aries

    -------
    As average house prices plummet – declining at a 23% annual rate over the three months ending in January – lenders are sharply curtailing access to mortgage-based, home-equity loans. The 15% of U.S. mortgage holders with negative equity in their homes have no access to credit, and 20% with marginal equity have limited access at best.Overall access to credit is contracting: Ask Americans trying to utilize home-equity lines or arrange student loans.
    ---------





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  • mrajatish
    04-08 11:39 PM
    I think we all agree that H1B visa needs reform. But reform has to stop the abuse of the system, not break the system itself.

    1. How can we ever defend a reform that prevents H1B holder from performong services for another client? Does that mean Deloitte, IBM, BCG, Mckenzie et.al. will not be able to employ any foreign national any more?

    2. How can we mandate that someone, who might have their labor and 140 approved, has to go through a certification process to renew H1 for the same job?

    These are some of the many things wrong with this bill. If Senator Durbin wants to really make "American workers first; H1B abuse limited" work, he might attempt to do the following:

    1. Free up the system such that a temporary worker can certify himself/herself for a job position for a few years (aka EAD for 3 years without being tied to an employer). The employer has to pay the same prevailing wage etc.

    2. Do not abuse the worker by asking him/her to pay for Social Security and Medicare when you call him "temporary" worker. H1B workers should be exempt from such taxes till they file 485 (Adjustment of status).

    And there are many more that I can think of that makes sense. Hope we, as a group, can prevail upon the good sense of the U.S. congress and pass meaningful reform, not a hogwash.





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  • chanduv23
    03-24 02:14 PM
    I had little knowledge of immigration and of the type of people on h-1b and the type of companies who sponsor greencards when I first started perusing immigration boards. I thought many people were like me.

    Back in 2002 and 2003 when USCIS hardly approved any EB greencards; people were pretty emotional on immigration.com.

    Rajiv Khanna did a class action lawsuit against USCIS to start approving cases. He wanted some plaintiffs. Now; people on immigration.com were so emotional about their approvals and cursing USCIS all over the place. Of the thousands of people who would post; there was only something like 13 people who actually signed up to be plaintiffs. I volunteered myself to be a plaintiff but my case had only been pending for about six months at that time so I didn't think I would be a good candidate. However; only 13 people signed up compared to the thousands who were bellyaching about it. I didn't understand at that time why there was so little people who were willing to step u.

    In 2007 AILF specifically wanted people to join the lawsuit but were very clear that they wanted "clean" cases. I thought it odd that they had to specifically mention this.

    Murthy didn't want to file lawsuit because they thought it would have negative repurcussions against their existing clients in future cases.

    USCIS is pretty much the toughest agency to deal with and people who deal with them regularly know this. Time is on their side. They can deny cases and it takes years to get through the system and people have to have a legal way to stay in the country while this goes on. Because of this hardly anybody challenges them.

    I concluded that not many people have clean cases. Many people faked things on their f-1 applications; had bench time; worked in different locations then where h-1b was approved for, etc., etc.

    If you look at the different positions people take on these immigration boards; it is usually based on their own situation or people they know of and that leads them to post in a certain way.

    eb3 versus eb2
    permanent jobs versus consulting
    country quota, etc.

    The lawyers are the ones who see thousands of cases and what USCIS does and generally do not want to challenge them because it will spell bigger problems.


    btw; I am still a little suspicious of the OP. Local offices mainly do family base cases and not employment base cases. Their requests for information are pretty standard and follow the lines of family base information. They do not regularly do employment base interviews. If what the OP is saying is true then this would be a directive coming from headquarters. If that is the case then asking for "contracts" is going to be very problematic as they are going after the temporary versus permanent job.

    Texas service center has been known to call candidates/companies but it is usually for very simple information (ie., company tax return, asking verbally whether person is still in same job or verifying current address). They don't call and ask verbally for complex information like OP has stated.

    In fact just about every local USCIS office makes you sign a statement that you are not being represented by a lawyer and they "swear" you in that you are going to tell the truth under penalty of perjury.

    UN - why do you think USCIS allows

    (1) File for h1b from consulting company - when they think there is an issue
    (2) Allow labor substitution - when they think it is not good
    (3) Allow eb3 to eb2 porting - when they think it is not good
    ....
    ....
    ....

    the list can go on

    Why do you think people who are following law - not liked by USCIS?

    I am not blaming USCIS or not poking at them or your interpretation.

    I personally see that if you are not properly represented either by company or my a good Attorney - you are bound to have issues.





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  • rima1805
    03-23 09:36 AM
    my greencard is filed under EB3 category and it looks like a long wait. My PD is 2003 Nov and i am an indian. We've been debating whether to buy a house when 485 is pending. what is the risk involved? how many people are in a similar situation? I have twin boys and they are 3 yrs old now and it's getting increasingly difficult to keep them in an apartment. Now with housing market going down as well, we are in a tight spot and have to make a decision quickly. I would appreciate any suggestion in this regard.

    We bought a townhome in my 1st yr of H1 as I had just got married and my wife (from India) was literally living out of her boxes in my 1-bed rm apt. My decision was based less on home being an investment (due to decling real est market, etc) and more on being a necessity. Try one of the "rent vs buy" online calculators to see how much more you would have to pay. For instance, I was shelling out ~1000 bucks a month on a decent 1 bed apt with garage; and now, I pay ~1500 on a 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome. This year I could also itemize my mortgage int payments and pay less tax too, where as the rent you pay every month goes straight into the drain! We recently had my parents from India stay for 6mo with comfort. Try that in an apt. In view of the GC situation, I'd go for a not-so-expensive but good neighborhood home so that you can 'enjoy' your life as others have rightly pointed out and sell it with lesser pain if you have to move & the housing market tanks. Good luck!



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  • nojoke
    01-01 12:23 PM
    Do you think Indian strikes on Pakistan, or a war between India and Pakistan, is going to weaken these guys, or strengthen them?
    What would be dumb now?



    Suppose there are theives from Bihar that come and rob you in West Bengal.
    You can either send your West Bengal police into Bihar, and turn it into a rivalry between two police departments. And a rivalry between two provinces.
    Or you have the two police departments work together to reduce crime rate in the future.

    You are delusional. Your example is no way related to what is happening. I don't know if I should explain the difference. 'You can wake up a sleeping man, but you cannot wake up a man pretending sleeping'. I have a feeling that you are simply trolling here.
    The attack on pakistan terrorist camps is not to defeat terrorist, but to send a message to pakistan government to get serious. Either take action on these terrorist or we will do it. (It is more like humilating pakistan that we can do this and world is on our side and you better do something about this problem). We ask Azad Masood now because, if we get one guy out of pakistan, all other terrorists would realize that they cannot have a safe haven in pakistan. At least they won't be preaching openly in the public to go and bomb India.
    So stop trolling:D





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  • abracadabra102
    01-06 05:36 PM
    If we take out the religion from equation, Israelis and Palestines are one people. They belong to same genetic pool and lived together for hundreds of years. In fact it was an Arab Calipha who allowed jews back into israel/palestine area after jews were ejected from this area by Romans. It is a pity they ended up like Indians and Pakistanis (same genetic pool again). Having said that, it is Arab countries that screwed Palestine people after 1948 war with Israel. Israel was willing for a compromise and creation of Palestine.

    Taken from wikipedia:

    "Following the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, the 1949 Armistice Agreements between Israel and neighboring Arab states eliminated Palestine as a distinct territory. With the establishment of Israel, the remaining lands were divided amongst Egypt, Syria and Jordan. The Arab governments at this point refused to set up a State of Palestine."

    complete article with several cross references here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine).

    Israel is doing what is required of a nation when attacked. It is sad that innocent children are dying. But I do not see any better options left open for Israel. Offcourse they could have done what India does - whine for a few months, complain to every Tom, Dick and Harry and then shut up. But not every one is spineless.



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  • StuckInTheMuck
    08-06 11:14 AM
    Got past me too :)





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  • gotgc?
    12-17 10:44 PM
    It is true that 99.99% of Muslims are not terrorists. But 99.99% of World's hardcore terrorists are Muslims.

    It is absolutely true...why is that all terrorists are muslims..something is wrong...



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  • gapala
    12-25 12:04 PM
    What a tiresome thread!!!

    Several years ago, people actually made an effort to make IV an organization representing all skilled workers, from all parts of the world. Now, immigration matters are totally irrelevant on the forums. Heck, forget about being an exclusively India focused forum, as this thread demonstrates, it is a venue to vent on matters even more narrowly focused - My religion, my sect, my opinion, my petty prejudices. If this is not irrelevant enough, we have enough threads on red dot-green dots to justify a whole separate category of forums :rolleyes:
    Anyway, it does a pretty good job of turning off people. I guarantee you this thread alone has contributed significantly in influencing many planning on attending the March rally to change their mind. It sure did mine.

    Friend,

    Even today, IV is an organization representing the skilled workers from all parts of the world and will remain so in future. Just because of this one thread, and your disagreement, if you start looking at the entire organization in a narrow way is not just. You also fail to notice that the terrorism is a global threat and it affects us and our families in different parts of the world. For years, people ignored this threat as it was not expressed openly in the civic societies around the world. Now, you can see people intimidate law enforcement, justice system and even constitutions of civic society. It has become open and exposed now. Did you see that some folks are hailing idiots who does cultureless acts as heros...

    You can choose to ignore this threat but I believe its worth a deliberation to be aware of the dangerous world that we live in. Note that except few baseless arguments on this thread, lot of the posts in this thread are very informative and based on the investigative reports. Lot of them are opinions of the individuals and they are worth too. If you are afraid that this will offend some one, Yes, this may / may not offend terrorists and their supporters. This sure should not offend the educated and skilled members of this organization.

    I would not blame the entire organization for just this thread as terrorism, violence and hostility, if escalated is threat to entire humanity be it in the name of religion or their perverted belief.





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  • BharatPremi
    03-26 04:31 PM
    I posted a few messages in another thread on macroeconomic issues. As you found out, a lot of people don't understand the severity of credit crunch. If you have lot of cash, yes you have a big advantage, go and invest. Even if you get it wrong for next 5 years, you will be ok.
    But for people who want to do this on borrowed money, credit crunch will hit you. The credit crunch will get worse. Whole mortgage industry will change, things will tighten. This just means something has to give up, which is house price.
    If you are already not in a house, wait as you might be able to buy at much lower prices. Jump into RE as investment now only if you have enough cash to sustain upto 30% drop in home prices !!

    So what do you advise, is it right time to refinance or wait it out and why?



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  • alisa
    01-03 02:36 PM
    Tomorrow the Bombay attack is old too.
    You are right. And so it is imperative that before that happens, the perpetrators and their handlers are hunted down, exposed and punished, in a credible and transparent manner.
    Pakistanis should want to know who is trying to provoke India, and risking a war in the subcontinent, and why.


    You are so good at giving advice to people who suffered at your country men's(like don't start war etc) hands and yet you don't own any responsibility.
    What apology?
    I am not responsible for the actions of those people. Imagine if after 9/11, an American asked you to apologize for the actions of the 19 'Brown men' (I am assuming here that you are a south asian male) who killed 3000 Americans, how silly do you think that situation would be. If cockroaches from my house take a dump in your kitchen, don't ask me to apologize for that.





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  • nojoke
    04-15 06:18 PM
    kaiserose & NKR have made some mistakes by buying a costly home & wouldn't admit.

    May God Bless you guys.

    :D:D



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  • sayantan76
    01-11 03:48 PM
    I don�t agree with your argument. Who is holing up the innocents..? Hamas using the kids and civilians as human shield. I also don�t consider the civilians as innocent there. They are whole heartedly support and elected Hamas -the terror organization. They are the one poisoning the kids with hatred. But I feel very sorry for the kids and the developments are very much disturbing.

    The Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria � the devil�s club will never achieve their goal � wipe out ISREAL from the map. ISREAL is IS REAL and this mullahs needs to understand that.
    we should be careful here - there is a thin line between terrorism and legitimate freedom struggle....also - the classification may very well vary based on which prism are you looking through.....for example - Bhagat Singh and the likes were considered terrorists by occupying British colonial power but were considered revolutionaries and freedom fighters by the Indian masses.....how can we say that the Indian Freedom Struggle was any more just and legitimate than the Palestinian desire for self governance...

    Another example - were the Mughal rulers in medieval India an occupying invader or were they populist rules loved by the masses? Based on how you answer this question - Chatrapati Shivaji either becomes a glorious Maratha freedom fighter or a terrorist leader....

    On the current situation - Hamas fighters live in a densely populated area....so of course - there are civilians there - what do you expect - Hamas would say - Israel is coming to fight us - lets find some sort of Panipat (check battles of panipat on wikipedia for those who dont know) or Kurukshetra (check Mahabharata on wikipedia) where we can fight Israelies in a vast unpopulated area - Israel is the invading army here - they have chosen to fight in densely populated areas - Hamas is merely responding....

    One of the newspapers today suggested that Hamas has booby trapped Gaza and thats causing problems for Israeli army and somehow Hamas is wrong in doing so - guys what do you expect - Israelis would be welcomed with garlands in Gaza? If some armed enemies were attacking your home and you knew you did not have the might to directly face them - wont you try every underhand tactic in the book to cause as much damage to the enemy as possible?

    While I am no supporter of Hamas or religious extremism - i think its important to study the Palestinian/Israel issue as an ethnic problem as opposed to a religious issue.... - holocaust was a terrible thing to happen but just because of the collective Western guilt conscience (of having done nothing to prevent Holocaust)- the Palestinian/ Israeli dispute has never been judged objectively and one side has always been given a long rope while the other has gotten the short end of the stick.





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  • prioritydate
    01-10 11:23 AM
    Now the killing has gone mad. Apart from killing the innocent civilians, crazy war mongers started bombing schools and killing innocent school kids. Today two schools were bombed and more than 40 children have been massacred.

    Its sad to see school children being brutally killed by missles and tanks. I don't understand how people could blow up innocent kids, women and men under the name of self-defence?

    This world has gone crazy and there's no one questioning about this in-human atrocities committed against fellow human being.

    Lets us pray for those who are going thru this hardship, and for an immediate end to this war crime.

    How many more innocent civilians including children they are planning to kill?. All these so called peace loving nations blocking the UN from making a cease-fire resolution. Looks like so called freedom lovers want more innocent lives.

    When Mumbai was attacked by terrorists, whole world was united and supported the victim(India). Now the same world is against the victim and encouraging more killing by not stopping the attrocities.

    Why would Hamas hide in school if they love their people so much? No body plans to kill innocent civilians, except Muslim terrorists, as we saw that everywhere in this world. So, what is your solution? Ask Israel to stop invading and punish Hamas, while they are busy blasting rockets from schools? Would you be happy if some Jew kids get killed? I believe you would be more that happy and would lit fire crackers!



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  • senthil1
    04-09 06:02 AM
    This bill's author says that H1b program should not be used to displace US workers. If that is main intent that is reasonable. If there is too much immigration then you will be also US worker in a few months or a few years then your job also may be replaced by future cheaper H1b youngters. Indian bodyshopers ready to bring even more than 500k H1B if unlimited H1b is allowed. So some meaningful reform is needed. My view is now there is some increase of H1b is needed but not 200k. But if they increase 120k then again lottery and that will not serve the purpose of H1b. Also if they restrict H1b then employers will have no choice to train fresh US workers instead of hiring 5 years experienced H1b. That is the expectation of Labor Unions and other US workers.


    Just because they have a position paper and a pdf file saying that they support US educated immigrants doesnt mean they do that.

    If IEEE-USA really cared about US educated students, they would have put in a provision to raise the cap for US masters degree holders from 20,000 to 40,000. Did they do that in this bill? NO.

    What created the 20,000 H1B visas for US educated students is lobbying by US universities. They saw a drop in student enrollment due to shortage of H1 visas in 2002 and 2003. Read the bureau of Immigration stats report to verify that drop in F1 visa demand from India and China in the early 2000s. Now its back up.

    Ron Hira and IEEE-USA have systematically worked for nearly 10 years to eliminate H1B program. However, they are doing it in a way that makes them look like reasonable people and helps them mask their xenophobic and protectionist attitude.

    This bill has been pretty much authored by xenophobes of IEEE-USA. If you look at the IEEE-USA website and what Sen. Grassley has been saying over the years, it has an uncanny similarity. Last year, IEEE-USA's insistence caused Sen. Grassley to put amendment in Jud committee to remove the provision of EAD for L1 spouses. Look at IEEE-USA's website and you will find remarkably similar material. Whether it was a justified and fair amendment, its a different issue.

    Lately, IEEE-USA has been against H1B employees who go back to India and China. Some time ago, they were saying "When does temporary end and permenant begin"...meaning, what part of "Temporary" do H1B "temporary non-immigrant" workers do not understand. They were against H1B employees becoming permenant by seeking Greencards and wanted them to go back after 6 years.

    Then they started opposing people who come here and go back because that is supposed to facilitate outsourcing. And IEEE-USA, like Lou Dobbs, hates outsourcing. So now they are unhappy even if H1B workers come here for 3-6 years and go back.

    So in a nutshell, they(IEEE-USA) are against H1B employees if they :

    1. Come here and stay here on GC.
    2. Come here and go back.
    3. Never come here but work for US companies and enable outsourcing.

    So the people who oppose all 3 of the above...like RON HIRA of IEEE-USA basically does not want us to exist in hi-tech work. Probably they would want all Indian and Chinese engineers to work in fields and pick cotton.

    Similary, Chuck Grassley has no problem with giving amnesty to illegals if they are agricultural workers. But in general he doesnt want too much immigration. So immigration is fine, as long as the brown people dont do white people's job. Immigration is good as long as brown people stick their brown asses in fieds picking cotton and stay away from that keyboard so that people like Ron Hira and his colleagues can get their 1990s back and write 4 lines of code per week and make $100,000 a year.

    Rimzhim, this whole public policy thing is really not your cup of tea. You go and stick to whatever it is that you are doing and let the core group handle this issue. This elitist attitude of "I am masters, I am Ph.D" is splinting apart this organization and you are too obtuse to understand the twisted ways of IEEE-USA.





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  • lfwf
    08-05 02:40 PM
    Agree. Like labor subsitution scandal/abuse, you should have a documenterly evidence to go after this scam (creating duplicate EB2 job just to cut-short the line). If it is a USCIS rule, they may ripoff this ( like labor sub.). It is long way to go. The nut shell-- as long us GC is in high demand, people abuse the system. DOL, USCIS, knows this. Thatswhy DOL is auditing most EB2 labor certification. In my view, who ever filed EB2 between 2000 to 2004 (when EB3 was current) are true-EB2. After 2005, most of the EB2 filings are cut-short the EB3 que. Most of the cases not based on actual MINIMUM requirements for the job. Everyone knows this..

    Please stop with this. this is truly offensive. Many of us happen to be truly qualified beyond your clarly limited imagination. Not all of us are in IT, not all of us work in body shops and NOT all of us deal with fraud in our lives. If a few do, then go chase the, and stop tarring us all with the same brush. This is really akin to my saying (and I'm not saying it) that all EB3 folks are just IT diploma holders working for body shops and the whole category is just a fruad. How does the tarring feel now?



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  • learning01
    02-01 09:02 PM
    Please give me a link to what you refer, and I will write to Lou-foul mouth. Also, I request you to wirte and update status.
    It is time for IV to do its job by letting the truth out. The claim that H1Bs do not pay any taxes are outrageous. They should know that H1Bs pay all the tax but do not enjoy the benefits, e.g., when they get laid off, they have to leave the coutry right away without getting a penny of unemployment benefits. They will not get the social socurity benefits if they do not work in the U.S. for at least 10 years while their visas only allow them to work 6 years in a row. Such unfairness can go on and on...:mad:





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  • gapala
    12-18 01:00 PM
    be it Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan Somalia,Darfur,Chechnya, Kashmir, Gujarat... everywhere muslims are killed for being muslims...noone goes to cuba,srilanka,north korea,zimbawe or whereever for watever reason...just imagine God forbid someone comes into your house, occupies it, kills your family, your brothers and sisters in front of you and kicks you out of your home and you are seeing no hope of justice... you wont stand outside your home sending flowers like munna bhai's gandhigiri.. trust me you will become a terrorist.

    How is that they are justified killing innocent public who is not even aware or connected to any of the problems that you have mentioned in your post?

    This is that age old argument and justification for terrorism... Oppressed/suppressed etc... we heard it enough. There is no place on planet earth where muslims enjoy freedom like in India. Reservation in premier education institutions/jobs. subsidized loans for housing etc. They are the only group who even have government (tax payers) funded flights to Macca every year. Still they resort to killing innocent public who are no way connected to the problems that you mentioned in the post. They are not even aware of these problems. (Wrong but easy targets).

    How could you justify these crazy folks?

    They intimidate people everywhere Asia/Europe and revolt against the civic society and institutions, reject the constitution demanding to allow them to follow Sharia and not the constitution. They forget that they are in that country by their own free CHOICE. They are not forced to stay there right?. They were from places where sharia is followed, they moved, due to what ever reason to civic societies and now they would NOT follow the constitution, where is the oppression here? Its their choice. They just create mental barrier for themself in the name of perverted belief system and reject civic society to look different. Its rediculous.

    Again not all the folks in that group support them, but the irony is that folks who are in at the peak of that group have this perverted belief and straight forward folks / good folks keeps mum. Due to fear?





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  • diptam
    08-06 11:53 AM
    Lot of our case was exactly like that - i was eligible for EB2 when my Eb3 labor was filed. Employer took advantage of my compromising situation ( H was having 390 days juice left)

    If Porting/Interfiling is taken off folks like me will be terribly victimized. I'm here for 9 years - my 1st labor was substituted , 2nd labor ( which should be Eb2 but filed in Eb3) took a round trip from Phily backlog elimination center and now i'm stuck in the Eb3-140 mess at NSC.

    My friends who are lucky enough & have filed fresh EB2 labor (based on BS+5, not MS also) have got till 140 approved and applied 485 as well due to EB2 being JUNE 2006 within 2 years of starting GC process.

    Porting/Interfiling must be there for genuine cases. If someone files a lawsuit against porting i'll file a counter lawsuit on discrimination grounds.

    sroyc,
    What a resolution!!! I completely agree with you. Interfiling should NOT be scrapped but limited to people who qualified for the later category (EB2/EB1) on the date of their PD.





    rockstart
    07-14 02:11 PM
    vdlrao's figues tell the story

    Second: advanced degrees or exceptional ability 14,362--8,557-- 20,255-- 42,550-- 44,316-- 15,406-- 32,534 --42,597-- 21,911-- 44,162


    2006 only 21,911 visa for EB2? come on average is around 40K and they just halved it. Its Eb2 that should feel bad. Else the dates would have been in 2006 much earlier.





    gapala
    06-05 07:12 PM
    Guys... Do not just look at individual rent vs. own comparision, have a bigger picture on the situation that we are in. I am tired of broker's "location..location...location" thing as well.. These things are way off the reality in this country..

    Historically, we all have seen that markets goes up and some times bubbles up, and goes down for a correction, some times south into recession.. .This is quiet natural to happen.. be it housing market or money market. We all know that Housing market needs a correction from those days where prices went up by $20,000 a month for several months without any control driven by easy credit, 0 down and stupid stated income policies.. Sure enough.. market started to correct itself after the credit become tight and lot of folks who jumped on to buy house at the top of peak went under water due to drop in the value of their homes... Here comes the obama housing rescue plan.. what are they trying to do here? trying to maintiain the bubble by encouraging more credit and spending.. working against natural correction of home prices towards south.

    Now lets look at whats happening around us and see if we will have returns on house as an investment.. (For those who are without GC, this becomes important).

    The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI) of US, a basic measure of an economy's economic performance, is about $13 Trillion per year as widely reported and boasted. Of that amount, approximately half, or $6.5 Trillion, is directly or indirectly related to government spending on the Federal, State, and Local levels.. :)

    Think about that for a second, about half of US current GDP is government spending? Does it sounds like developing nation? and due to job loss, loss of interest income, strained consumer keeps cutting back..the economy will contract further and eventually the goverment spending will be a major portion.

    US does not produce any consumer goods, its all China..if you don't produce you don't sell and if you don't sell you don't make an income, and if you don't make an income you don't pay taxes...plain and simple. So, what do we do, Borrow and spend.. but remember, the interest obligations will grow to suck the dollars away from goods and services that it purchases. (Folks are in China now :D)

    Due to a struggling economy, primarily driven by consumers credit crunch, lower sales means, less revenue for government and they must borrow more money to keep the government machine spending and the economy rolling despite lower tax revenues.

    It was all good when Consumers and Government borrowed, as long as they could find someone to lend and collectively could spend. During the bubble, banks lent to consumers freely and foreigners lent to Government until banks and foreigners realized we simply borrowed too much slowed lending as it became much more difficult to service the debt. Now banks are not lending to consumers with less than best rating and the government is forcing banks to lend to consumers by loaning banks TAXPAYER money at 1/4% and the banks loan it right back to us at 4.5 yo 5.5% now. How about that? :D:D

    Due to lack of credit for non-government sector, of US economy...private sector is becoming much poorer much faster creating an imbalance in the society. Mathematically private sector going south will continue due to the very high leverage on the Private Side as more and more dwindling dollars are simply allocated to paying interest due to less revenues. With time a greater and greater percentage of a troubled economy will be directly consumed by rising interest payments resulting in less
    government spending which might lead us to an inflation, wages will never keep up with exploding commodity prices. Then only option remains Tax increases on those who earn :)
    Because, Right now a huge portion of government spending is feeding the poor, housing assistance, and providing medical care to the poor and elderly. Once the government bailout dry up, fewer and fewer will be able to borrow, work on and pay taxes in private sector, fewer and fewer will be able to pay taxes and the burden will rest on the shoulders of those that have something to offer...all what they have will not be enough to sustain a $13 Trillion dollar economy.

    With such a scenario, house prices cannot stay up at more than 4 times the desposible income of majority (middle class) population which remains at less than mere USD 30000. You can imagine now, what is going to happen if home prices does not correct itself due to government interfearance.

    Its an individual perspective to decide to buy home.. Do comment and throw out your ideas..

    You can find my analysis of housing market on link below (india vs. US) http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=285966#post285966



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